Language models (LMs) encode substantial factual knowledge, but often produce answers judged as incorrect. We hypothesize that many of these answers are actually correct, but are expressed in alternative surface forms that are dismissed due to an overly strict evaluation, leading to an underestimation of models' parametric knowledge. We propose Retrieval-Constrained Decoding (RCD), a decoding strategy that restricts model outputs to unique surface forms. We introduce YAGO-QA, a dataset of 19,137 general knowledge questions. Evaluating open-source LMs from 135M to 70B parameters, we show that standard decoding undervalues their knowledge. For instance, Llama-3.1-70B scores only 32.3% F1 with vanilla decoding but 46.0% with RCD. Similarly, Llama-3.1-8B reaches 33.0% with RCD, outperforming the larger model under vanilla decoding. We publicly share the code and dataset at https://github.com/Rajjaa/disambiguated-LLM.

Fine-scale soil mapping in Alaska, traditionally relying on fieldwork and localized simulations, remains a critical yet underdeveloped task, despite the region's ecological importance and extensive permafrost coverage. As permafrost thaw accelerates due to climate change, it threatens infrastructure stability and key ecosystem services, such as soil carbon storage. High-resolution soil maps are essential for characterizing permafrost distribution, identifying vulnerable areas, and informing adaptation strategies. We present MISO, a vision-based machine learning (ML) model to produce statewide fine-scale soil maps for near-surface permafrost and soil taxonomy. The model integrates a geospatial foundation model for visual feature extraction, implicit neural representations for continuous spatial prediction, and contrastive learning for multimodal alignment and geo-location awareness. We compare MISO with Random Forest (RF), a traditional ML model that has been widely used in soil mapping applications. Spatial cross-validation and regional analysis across Permafrost Zones and Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) show that MISO generalizes better to remote, unseen locations and achieves higher recall than RF, which is critical for monitoring permafrost thaw and related environmental processes. These findings demonstrate the potential of advanced ML approaches for fine-scale soil mapping and provide practical guidance for future soil sampling and infrastructure planning in permafrost-affected landscapes. The project will be released at https://github.com/knowledge-computing/Peatland-permafrost.

The COVID 19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain, causing significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the availability dates of products, which is critical information for companies to generate effective logistics and shipment plans. Therefore, accurately predicting availability dates plays a pivotal role in executing successful logistics operations, ultimately minimizing total transportation and inventory costs. We investigate the prediction of product availability dates for General Electric (GE) Gas Power's inbound shipments for gas and steam turbine service and manufacturing operations, utilizing both numerical and categorical features. We evaluate several regression models, including Simple Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network models. Based on real world data, our experiments demonstrate that the tree based algorithms (i.e., RF and GBM) provide the best generalization error and outperforms all other regression models tested. We anticipate that our prediction models will assist companies in managing supply chain disruptions and reducing supply chain risks on a broader scale.

Storm surge is a major natural hazard in coastal regions, responsible both for significant property damage and loss of life. Accurate, efficient models of storm surge are needed both to assess long-term risk and to guide emergency management decisions. While high-fidelity regional- and global-ocean circulation models such as the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model can accurately predict storm surge, they are very computationally expensive. Here we develop a novel surrogate model for peak storm surge prediction based on a multi-stage approach. In the first stage, points are classified as inundated or not. In the second, the level of inundation is predicted . Additionally, we propose a new formulation of the surrogate problem in which storm surge is predicted independently for each point. This allows for predictions to be made directly for locations not present in the training data, and significantly reduces the number of model parameters. We demonstrate our modeling framework on two study areas: the Texas coast and the northern portion of the Alaskan coast. For Texas, the model is trained with a database of 446 synthetic hurricanes. The model is able to accurately match ADCIRC predictions on a test set of synthetic storms. We further present a test of the model on Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Harvey (2017). For Alaska, the model is trained on a dataset of 109 historical surge events. We test the surrogate model on actual surge events including the recent Typhoon Merbok (2022) that take place after the events in the training data. For both datasets, the surrogate model achieves similar performance to ADCIRC on real events when compared to observational data. In both cases, the surrogate models are many orders of magnitude faster than ADCIRC.

Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to erosion from storm waves. Such coastal erosion is a concern, since the majority of the population centers and infrastructure in the Arctic are located near the coasts. Stakeholders and decision makers increasingly need models capable of scenario-based predictions to assess and mitigate the effects of coastal morphology on infrastructure and land use. Our research uses Gaussian process models to forecast Arctic coastal erosion along the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, AK. Gaussian process regression is a data-driven modeling methodology capable of extracting patterns and trends from data-sparse environments such as remote Arctic coastlines. To train our model, we use annual coastline positions and near-shore summer temperature averages from existing datasets and extend these data by extracting additional coastlines from satellite imagery. We combine our calibrated models with future climate models to generate a range of plausible future erosion scenarios. Our results show that the Gaussian process methodology substantially improves yearly predictions compared to linear and nonlinear least squares methods, and is capable of generating detailed forecasts suitable for use by decision makers.