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Examining the Dynamics of Local and Transfer Passenger Share Patterns in Air Transportation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The air transportation local share, defined as the proportion of local passengers relative to total passengers, serves as a critical metric reflecting how economic growth, carrier strategies, and market forces jointly influence demand composition. This metric is particularly useful for examining industry structure changes and large-scale disruptive events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This research offers an in-depth analysis of local share patterns on more than 3900 Origin and Destination (O&D) pairs across the U.S. air transportation system, revealing how economic expansion, the emergence of low-cost carriers (LCCs), and strategic shifts by legacy carriers have collectively elevated local share. To efficiently identify the local share characteristics of thousands of O&Ds and to categorize the O&Ds that have the same behavior, a range of time series clustering methods were used. Evaluation using visualization, performance metrics, and case-based examination highlighted distinct patterns and trends, from magnitude-based stratification to trend-based groupings. The analysis also identified pattern commonalities within O&D pairs, suggesting that macro-level forces (e.g., economic cycles, changing demographics, or disruptions such as COVID-19) can synchronize changes between disparate markets. These insights set the stage for predictive modeling of local share, guiding airline network planning and infrastructure investments. This study combines quantitative analysis with flexible clustering to help stakeholders anticipate market shifts, optimize resource allocation strategies, and strengthen the air transportation system's resilience and competitiveness.


Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Product Availability Dates Under Disruption

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The COVID 19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain, causing significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the availability dates of products, which is critical information for companies to generate effective logistics and shipment plans. Therefore, accurately predicting availability dates plays a pivotal role in executing successful logistics operations, ultimately minimizing total transportation and inventory costs. We investigate the prediction of product availability dates for General Electric (GE) Gas Power's inbound shipments for gas and steam turbine service and manufacturing operations, utilizing both numerical and categorical features. We evaluate several regression models, including Simple Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network models. Based on real world data, our experiments demonstrate that the tree based algorithms (i.e., RF and GBM) provide the best generalization error and outperforms all other regression models tested. We anticipate that our prediction models will assist companies in managing supply chain disruptions and reducing supply chain risks on a broader scale.


One-shot learning for acoustic identification of bird species in non-stationary environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work introduces the one-shot learning paradigm in the computational bioacoustics domain. Even though, most of the related literature assumes availability of data characterizing the entire class dictionary of the problem at hand, that is rarely true as a habitat's species composition is only known up to a certain extent. Thus, the problem needs to be addressed by methodologies able to cope with non-stationarity. To this end, we propose a framework able to detect changes in the class dictionary and incorporate new classes on the fly. We design an one-shot learning architecture composed of a Siamese Neural Network operating in the logMel spectrogram space. We extensively examine the proposed approach on two datasets of various bird species using suitable figures of merit. Interestingly, such a learning scheme exhibits state of the art performance, while taking into account extreme non-stationarity cases.